Abstract: Objective To explore the prognosis and risk factor of elderly patients with posterior circulation ischemia (PCI). 
Methods A total of 120 patients with PCI in Chengde Central Hospital were selected and grouped according to the prognosis at 3 months after treatment. The differences in clinical data, fasting peripheral blood glucose (FBG), and hemoglobin A1C(HbA1c) between patients with poor prognosis and those with good prognosis were analyzed.  
Results There were 39 patients with poor prognosis, and the incidence of poor prognosis was 32.50%. The age of patients with poor prognosis and the highest National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score during admission were (68.93±4.02) years and (19.30±2.50) points, respectively, which were significantly higher than those with good prognosis (P＜0.05). The FBG, HbA1c, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase a2 (Lp-PLA2), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs CRP) and platelet activating factor (PAF) in poor prognosis group were (7.28±0.92) mmol/L, (7.02±0.86)%, (330.50±65.53) μg/L, (20.22±6.43) ng/L and (248.23±44.18) ng/L, respectively, which were significantly higher than those in good prognosis group (P＜0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that age, the highest NIHSS score during hospitalization, FBG, Lp-PLA2, and PAF were the prognostic factors of patients (P＜0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic predicted by this equation for poor prognosis was 0.884 (95%CI: 0.821-0.948), (P＜0.05), and the sensitivity and specificity were 84.60% and 81.50%, respectively. 
Conclusion The proportion of poor prognosis in elderly patients with PCI is high, and the prognosis is affected by the age of patients, the highest NIHSS score during hospitalization, FBG, Lp-PLA2, and PAF. Meanwhile, the model constructed by this method has high predictive value for the poor prognosis of patients. 

Key words: ischemic stroke, posterior circulation ischemia, elderly